Voters in Makerfield go to the polls on Thursday, June 18, in what has become one of the most closely watched by-elections in Britain, with implications not only for Labour’s future leadership but also for the growing battle for support on the political Right.
The contest was triggered after Labour MP Josh Simons stepped down last month following discussions with Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester, who is seeking a return to Westminster after years in local government.
What might ordinarily have been a relatively straightforward Labour defence has instead become a national political story. Mr Burnham has made no secret of his ambition to play a bigger role in national politics and has publicly stated that he would seek the Labour leadership in the future if the opportunity arose.
His candidacy is widely seen as an attempt to re-establish himself at the heart of Westminster politics and potentially position himself as a future challenger to Sir Keir Starmer.
Now, a leaked opinion poll has added a fresh twist to the race.
According to reporting, the survey places Labour on 35 per cent, Reform UK on 24 per cent and Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain party on 13 per cent.
If the figures are accurate, they suggest Labour could benefit from a split among voters on the Right, with Reform UK and Restore Britain competing for support from many of the same voters.
The leaked poll appears to show stronger support for Restore Britain than previous public surveys conducted during the campaign. Earlier polling by Survation placed Labour on 43 per cent and Reform UK on 40 per cent, with Restore Britain on seven per cent shortly after the by-election was called. A second poll published last week showed Labour extending its lead to 49 per cent, with Reform UK on 39 per cent and Restore Britain on eight per cent.
Reform UK has strongly challenged the credibility of the latest leaked figures. Party sources reportedly described the survey as “disinformation” and claimed Restore Britain had not achieved more than five per cent support in any of the party’s own internal polling.
Questions have also been raised about who commissioned and conducted the survey, with Reform figures arguing that any polling company belonging to the British Polling Council would normally publish detailed methodology and data tables.
The emergence of Restore Britain has become one of the most intriguing aspects of the contest.
The party was founded earlier this year by Great Yarmouth MP Rupert Lowe following his highly publicised split from Reform UK and Nigel Farage. Since then, Mr Lowe has sought to establish Restore Britain as a distinct political force, campaigning on issues including immigration, border security and wider political reform.
Speaking to the Telegraph, Mr Lowe rejected suggestions that his party was merely taking votes away from Reform UK. He argued that Restore Britain was attracting support from people who had become disillusioned with all of the established political parties rather than simply drawing voters away from Reform.
Political analyst Sir John Curtice has previously suggested that the arrival of Restore Britain could make it significantly harder for Reform UK to win closely contested seats. He recently described Makerfield as being on a “knife edge” and said the intervention of Restore Britain was likely to be good news for Labour.
For Labour, the stakes extend far beyond one parliamentary seat.
Mr Burnham is one of the party’s most recognisable figures and has long been regarded as a potential future leader. During the campaign he has argued that electing him would help change Labour from within and has pledged measures including reductions in business rates for pubs and relief for some smaller businesses.
The by-election also comes at a sensitive moment for Sir Keir Starmer. Following disappointing local election results and growing criticism from some within Labour, questions have increasingly been asked about the party’s future direction. A successful return to Parliament for Mr Burnham would inevitably intensify speculation about his long-term ambitions.
For Reform UK, meanwhile, Makerfield represents an opportunity to demonstrate that strong national polling can be converted into parliamentary victories. The party continues to argue that it remains the principal challenger to Labour in many former industrial and working-class constituencies.
Makerfield has elected Labour MPs continuously since the constituency was created in 1983, making it one of the party’s most reliable strongholds. However, with Reform UK seeking a breakthrough, Restore Britain attempting to establish itself as a new force on the Right, and Andy Burnham eyeing a route back to Westminster, this year’s by-election has become far more significant than a routine local contest.
When voters in Makerfielf cast their ballots on June 18, the result could offer an early indication of Labour’s future leadership battles, Reform UK’s electoral strength, and whether Rupert Lowe’s new party has the ability to influence the outcome of elections across Britain.
For some, this by-election is about who should represent Makerfield. For others, it is about the future direction of Labour, the rise of Reform UK, and whether new political movements such as Restore Britain can reshape British politics.
What do you think? Will Andy Burnham’s gamble pay off? Is Reform UK being held back by a split on the Right? Could Restore Britain become a significant force in future elections?
We’d love to hear your views.
